--- title: Daily comment for Friday, October 9 description: A bearish shock in corn to close out the week. image: https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-friday-october-9#main-content) [![CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png?width=300&height=135&name=CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png "CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3")](https://www.claytonpopecommodities.com/) [All posts](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/all) October 13, 2026 # Daily comment for Friday, October 9 ![Picture of Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/1728420772119.jpg?width=50&name=1728420772119.jpg) By  [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope)  ·  4 minute read | CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | Dec '26 Corn | 479 3/4 | -20 1/2 | | Mar '27 Corn | 494 1/4 | -21 | | Nov '26 Beans | 1292 | +4 1/2 | | Jan '27 Beans | 1308 3/4 | +4 1/2 | | Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 671 | -12 1/4 | | Dec '26 KC Wheat | 719 1/4 | -17 | | Dec '26 Cotton | 80.39 | +.45 | | Crude Oil (spot futures) | 91.27 | -.23 | | US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 102.03 | +.09 | | Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,985 | +496 | ## Daily Glance A bearish shock in corn to close out the week. December corn was trading near unchanged ahead of the report, then fell straight to the 30 cent limit once the numbers came out before finding some buyers and finishing nearly a dime off its low. Wheat got dragged down right along with it. ### Want the rest of today's comment? Leave your name and email to read the full daily market comment, including technicals, weather and trade implications. Beans were a different story. They dipped well under yesterday's low right after the report, but staged an impressive rebound from there to finish higher on the day. USDA raised the corn yield 2.7 bushels to 181.2, nearly three and a half bushels above the average guess and the largest September to October increase since 2005, with Nebraska alone up 11 bushels. A little more feed, ethanol and export demand didn't come close to offsetting it, and ending stocks jumped 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion, well north of the 1.694 the trade was looking for. Between last week's stocks number and today's production increase, USDA has found a little over 400 million more bushels of corn in less than two weeks. That has plenty of people frustrated with the department, and rightfully so, after weekly condition ratings that kept showing the crop getting worse right up through this week. The bean yield came in at 53.1, a couple tenths above the trade guess, and ending stocks rose 5 million bushels to 315. Outside markets took their cue from the President dialing back his war talk with Iran heading into the weekend, with equities rallying and crude slipping a bit. ## Key Points/Developments **Technicals:** December corn touched 504 3/4 before the numbers and dropped all the way to the limit at 470 1/4, taking out the 495 area that had held for six sessions along with the 490 and 480 areas below it. It settled nearly 10 cents off the low but well under its 50 day average. Next support is 458, with resistance back at the 495 area, then the 5.00 area and the 50 day near 508. November beans slipped to 1269 3/4 right after the report, a few cents under the 1273 support area we flagged yesterday, before rallying more than 20 cents off the low to settle back around the 1290 area that gave way yesterday. They remain above the 50 day average near 1262, with support at the 1273 area and then the 50 day, and resistance at the 1305 area and then 1320. **Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread narrowed a half cent to 14 1/2, and the Nov/Jan bean spread was unchanged at 16 3/4. **Weather:** TStorm is closed until Wednesday, so there were no rating changes this week. Isaias is expected to come ashore at the Alabama/Florida line late tonight as a Category 2 and push northeast into Kentucky Sunday, with 1.5 to 5 inches of rain along its inland path. Rain chances pick up across the central U.S. after the weekend, which could slow harvest some next week. ## Markets/Trading Implications Today's report was bearish for corn, plain and simple. TStorm's YieldCast had been sitting right around 181 for a while, well above most of the trade, and once again it proved right on the money. We suggested catching up on harvest sales into Tuesday's rally, and with a 1.8 billion plus carryover that won't get another look for a month, the data is what it is for now, and that's hardly bullish even at these levels. Outside of the funds, who may not be done liquidating longs, the short term story is China. All eyes are on whether it used this dip to make progress on its purchase commitments, with the end of the year creeping closer and a November meeting with Trump in China where that progress will certainly be discussed. The bounce off the lows points that way, but we'll want some verification early next week. Beans continue to act resilient even with the fundamentals not backing them up for the time being, and their carryover keeps inching higher. It just shows how much the technicals matter to fund managers, with beans still above their key moving averages while corn sits below its own. We won't be chasing any cash sales here, but admittedly, for now, we have to look at rallies to advance sales further. Call anytime. ## Other Notes - For the week, Dec corn lost 18 cents, Nov beans gained 13 3/4 cents, Chicago wheat lost 12 cents, and cotton gained 1.63. - USDA cut its estimate of Russian wheat exports by 3 million tons to 40 million, with the Black Sea ports still shut. - Illinois' soybean yield is now pegged at a record 68 bushels, and Ohio tops 60 for the first time ever. - Here's how today's numbers stacked up against the average trade guesses: ![10-9-26 atg](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/10-9-26%20atg.png) ## Static Notes - Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, October 6 showed the funds still trimming corn while adding a little in beans. Corn's net long came down about 60k to 317k. Soybeans' net long rose about 10k to 252k, and wheat's net short grew from nearly 22k to nearly 30k. - Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn lose 14 cents, November beans gain 5 1/4, and December Chicago wheat gain 11 1/2. In the three trading days since this report, corn has lost 28 1/4 cents, soybeans have lost 11, and Chicago wheat has lost 33 1/4. Have a great weekend! Clayton and Taylor --- **RISK DISCLAIMER:** Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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