--- title: Daily comment for Friday, September 11 description: The chatter all week was that the September USDA report could bring some fireworks and that it did with both corn and soybeans trading in wide ranges... image: https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-friday-september-11#main-content) [![CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png?width=300&height=135&name=CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png "CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3")](https://www.claytonpopecommodities.com/) [All posts](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/all) October 13, 2026 # Daily comment for Friday, September 11 ![Picture of Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/1728420772119.jpg?width=50&name=1728420772119.jpg) By  [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope)  ·  4 minute read | CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | Dec '26 Corn | 530 1/4 | -3 1/2 | | Mar '27 Corn | 545 1/2 | -3 3/4 | | Nov '26 Beans | 1296 1/2 | -35 3/4 | | Jan '27 Beans | 1312 | -35 1/4 | | Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 725 1/4 | -16 | | Dec '26 KC Wheat | 798 1/2 | -20 1/4 | | Dec '26 Cotton | 86.19 | -2.03 | | Crude Oil (spot futures) | 100.61 | -1.86 | | US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 98.85 | -0.20 | | Dow Jones (spot futures) | 52,597 | +503 | ## Daily Glance The chatter all week was that the September USDA report could bring some fireworks and that it did with both corn and soybeans trading in wide ranges throughout the session, including new highs and lows for the week at one point. Beans made a new high overnight, but saw selling most of the morning, into the report while corn was lower from the get go. ### Want the rest of today's comment? Leave your name and email to read the full daily market comment, including technicals, weather and trade implications. As for the report itself, the USDA cut the corn yield to 178.5 bushels from 180.7 in August and brought new crop ending stocks down to 1.567 billion. Beans went the other direction on the crop itself, yield nudging a tenth higher to 52.8, though their carryout still slipped to 310 million on better export demand. All four updates were higher than their average trade guesses. Corn jumped lower initially, but turned on a dime rallying better than twenty cents off its low before again being faded to close well off its high. Beans too saw a rally following its release, but was quickly sold and eventually closed at its lowest level this month, thus giving away all its gains and more from yesterday. Outside markets went the other way. Crude gave back a piece of yesterday's surge but held above a hundred dollars, the dollar softened slightly, and equities were strong with the Dow adding better than five hundred points. ## Key Points/Developments **Technicals:** Dec corn whipsawed throughout the day, taking out the 527 to 530 support zone we have been watching into the report before rallying towards 540, before ultimately closing just above that aforementioned support area. Support below todays low lies around 518. Resistance stays 540 to 542, then 550. Nov beans dropped 35 3/4 cents to 1296 1/2, undoing Thursday's breakout entirely. They are back through the 1321 to 1324 zone they had cleared and down through the 1300 to 1306 support we flagged, which leaves the 20 day average near 1177 as the next support and then 1250. For all that, they still have not traded under their early September low. **Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread narrowed a touch to 15 1/4 cents. The Nov/Jan bean spread widened back out to 15 1/2 from 15, undoing Thursday's tightening and putting that carry back near the widest of the move. **Weather:** TStorm made no changes for a second day, leaving corn and soybeans both at neutral and winter wheat at slightly unfavorable. A sharp north to south temperature gradient keeps pockets of rain and thunderstorms focused on the central Plains and Corn Belt through the middle of next week, heaviest Sunday through Wednesday, though they may have trouble reaching the eastern Corn Belt with high pressure hanging on. Warmer weather one to two weeks out would mean better rainfall and cooler would mean less, but either way there should be enough soil moisture and enough dry hours for wheat planting to get started. In Brazil the heavy rain in the south continues through Sunday with more behind it in 7 to 10 days. ## Markets/Trading Implications The data was certainly more friendly to corn than it was to soybeans. It is hard to take the bean numbers as anything but bearish, with yield going up rather than down and a carryover still north of 300 million bushels even after the export increase. Corn is the other side of it. The most important thing there is what did not happen, in that we came through a report that could have hurt us without a major bearish surprise. A carryout near 1.5 billion bushels puts stocks to use under 10 percent, the tightest in more than five years, and USDA raised its season average farm price to 4.80 while it was at it. Going forward we would still expect more weakness, and with harvest underway and the funds still carrying their length, that is worth respecting. But as we have been saying for a while now, we do not believe this market can get away to the downside either. Beans could start carving out a trading range somewhere between 1300 and 1260 as the glut of harvest shows up. There will be plenty of China headlines before then though, a possible reduction in tariffs among them, and those are the sort of thing that can produce some nice jumps. Corn may head in a similar direction for the time being, but with that carryout and that stocks to use number, we would be hard pressed to see it below 5.00 unless the fund managers really get spooked. On marketing, that bean carry is attractive again, so rolling HTAs and hedges into deferred months is right back on the table, and corn's Dec/March offers the same. We would not be making new sales into this break. Call anytime. ## Other Notes - Net changes on the week: Dec corn down 6 1/2 cents, Nov beans down 13 1/4, and Chicago wheat down 8 3/4. - Initial meetings between representatives from the US and China are taking place this weekend, ahead of the larger summit on the 24th. - Here are a look at the changes from todays data drop: ![Screenshot 2026-09-11 155946](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/Screenshot%202026-09-11%20155946.png) ## Static Notes - Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 1, showed funds still adding aggressively. Corn's net long grew to about 431,000 contracts, up roughly 55,000 on the week, funds buying about 28,000 new longs and covering another 27,000 of shorts. Soybeans' net long grew to about 241,000, up roughly 43,000, while wheat flipped from a net short of about 14,000 to a net long of about 15,000, its first net long position since late April. - Measured against the September 1 closes that report captured, seven sessions later corn sits 15 3/4 cents lower, beans 21 1/4 lower and Chicago wheat 57 1/4 lower. - **Please note that this week's Commitment of Traders report will not be released today. Because of the Labor Day holiday it has been pushed back to Monday, so the fund positions above remain the most current numbers we have.** Have a great weekend! Clayton and Taylor --- **RISK DISCLAIMER:** Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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