--- title: Daily comment for Monday, October 12 description: "Oct 12 grain market comment: corn bounces off Friday's limit low and beans give back gains to harvest selling. Technicals, weather and trade outlook." image: https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-monday-october-12#main-content) [![CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png?width=300&height=135&name=CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png "CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3")](https://www.claytonpopecommodities.com/) [All posts](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/all) October 13, 2026 # Daily comment for Monday, October 12 ![Picture of Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/1728420772119.jpg?width=50&name=1728420772119.jpg) By  [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope)  ·  4 minute read | CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | Dec '26 Corn | 483 | +3 1/4 | | Mar '27 Corn | 497 1/4 | +3 | | Nov '26 Beans | 1287 3/4 | -4 1/4 | | Jan '27 Beans | 1304 3/4 | -4 | | Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 672 1/4 | +1 1/4 | | Dec '26 KC Wheat | 715 1/4 | -4 | | Dec '26 Cotton | 80.44 | +.05 | | Crude Oil (spot futures) | 93.16 | +1.50 | | US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 102.37 | +.35 | | Dow Jones (spot futures) | 52,129 | +153 | ## Daily Glance A much quieter start to the week after Friday's fireworks. Corn opened a few cents lower, found steady buying from there and settled near its high of the day, nearly 13 cents above Friday's limit low. Wheat was mixed with Chicago a touch higher and Kansas City lower. ### Want the rest of today's comment? Leave your name and email to read the full daily market comment, including technicals, weather and trade implications. Beans gave back nearly all of Friday's gain, but once again closed well off their lows. They were down close to 14 cents overnight after a weekend of fast harvest progress brought in some farmer selling, then spent the day session clawing most of that back. Corn got some help from growers choosing to bin corn and sell beans instead, which takes some hedge pressure off the board, and from the rest of the world not following us down on Friday. Paris corn is pushing contract highs again, and Gulf corn still works into Europe at a hefty margin, so export demand stayed in the picture even with the bigger crop. Debate over Friday's numbers carried on through the weekend. Nearly all of the lifting in the yield increase came from the Plains, with Nebraska, Kansas, Texas and the Dakotas accounting for 205 million of the 234 million bushel production gain while the I states barely moved, and some are now arguing that new crop Delta corn got counted as old crop in last month's stocks number. China is back from its Golden Week holiday, and the trade spent the day watching for any sign it was in the market. Nothing surfaced, and with USDA closed for the holiday, the weekly export inspections and crop progress both slide to tomorrow. Outside markets were back on the Middle East, with crude up a dollar and a half after Houthi strikes hit the Riyadh airport and a Saudi refinery over the weekend, while the dollar and equities both finished a little higher. ## Key Points/Developments **Technicals:** December corn held above Friday's 470 1/4 limit low all day, trading between 476 and 484 1/4 and settling near the top of that range, back above the 480 area that gave way Friday. It remains well under its 50 day average near 509, with support at Friday's low and then 458, and resistance at the 490 area, then the 495 area and the 50 day. November beans spent the day inside Friday's range, dipping to 1278 before settling a couple cents under the 1290 area. They are still above the 1273 support area that held Friday and the 50 day average near 1268, with resistance at the 1305 area and then 1320. **Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread narrowed a quarter cent to 14 1/4, and the Nov/Jan bean spread widened a quarter cent to 17. **Weather:** TStorm is closed until Wednesday, so there are no rating changes to report. Isaias came ashore at Destin over the weekend, farther east than the models had it, and its heavy rain went up the East Coast rather than into the Corn Belt. Across the central U.S. there are a few more days of summer like temperatures and an open harvest window that should push corn and bean harvest past the halfway point this week, before rain working up from Mexico into the western belt slows things down late in the week, with a second round of moisture in the 10 to 15 day window. ## Markets/Trading Implications Today didn't change much. Corn's bounce off the limit low was welcome, but it came on light volume with the trade still digesting Friday, and a 1.8 billion plus carryover doesn't go away because the bulls have found reasons to doubt it. That Delta harvest explanation for the stocks number seems like a stretch to us, and even if USDA was too aggressive in the Plains, as some of its own ear count data suggests, January is a long way off and the market will trade the number it has until then. What corn does have going for it is demand. With Europe's crop shrinking and the Black Sea getting harder to ship out of, the world is leaning on U.S. corn, and the market is now hunting for the price that brings enough of that business in. Funds that got spooked below the 50 day average aren't likely to get interested again until corn is back above it, and that is still more than 25 cents away. China is the other piece, and today told us nothing. It's back from its holiday with roughly 10 million tons of beans still to buy by the end of December to reach its 25 million, plus a share of the 17 billion dollars in other ag goods it committed to, and corn is where it has the most ground to make up. With a Trump and Xi meeting coming in mid November, this is the week we'd expect to start seeing something, and the first confirmed business will matter more than any headline about it. Beans gave back a little to harvest selling, but they are still sitting above their 50 day average and the 1273 area that held Friday, and that remains the difference between the two markets. Their fundamentals aren't exciting with the carryover inching higher, but as long as the technicals hold, the funds have little reason to run. Call anytime. ## Other Notes - USDA was closed today for Columbus Day, so export inspections and crop progress both come out Tuesday. - USDA has Europe importing 23 million tons of corn this year, and with soil moisture there at a record low for mid October and wheat getting fed because it's cheap relative to corn, that number looks light to us. - The energy ceasefire announced between Russia and Ukraine lasted only a few hours before Russia hit a half dozen energy targets, and between that and the Saudi strikes, fuel and fertilizer prices are moving higher again. - Mato Grosso has a third of its soybean crop planted against a five year average of 23%, with rain across northern Brazil getting the crop up. ## Static Notes - Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, October 6 showed the funds still trimming corn while adding a little in beans. Corn's net long came down about 60k to 317k. Soybeans' net long rose about 10k to 252k, and wheat's net short grew from nearly 22k to nearly 30k. - Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn lose 14 cents, November beans gain 5 1/4, and December Chicago wheat gain 11 1/2. In the four trading days since this report, corn has lost 25 cents, soybeans have lost 15 1/4, and Chicago wheat has lost 32. Have a nice evening! Clayton and Taylor --- **RISK DISCLAIMER:** Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Copyright © 2026, Clayton Pope Commodities ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Taylor Pope", "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope" }, "dateModified" : "2026-10-13T20:31:17.528Z", "datePublished" : "2026-10-13T20:06:00.000Z", "headline" : "Daily comment for Monday, October 12", "image" : [ "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-monday-october-12", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/Untitled%20design.png" } } } ``` ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "Article", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : [ "Taylor Pope" ], "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope" }, "datePublished" : "2026-10-13T20:06:00+0000", "description" : "Oct 12 grain market comment: corn bounces off Friday's limit low and beans give back gains to harvest selling. 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