--- title: Daily comment for Monday October 5 description: Disappointing close after what seemed like promising early strength. image: https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-monday-october-5#main-content) [![CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png?width=300&height=135&name=CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png "CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3")](https://www.claytonpopecommodities.com/) [All posts](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/all) October 13, 2026 # Daily comment for Monday October 5 ![Picture of Clayton Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/Clayton%20headshot.avif) By  [Clayton Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/clayton-pope)  ·  3 minute read | CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | Dec '26 Corn | 497 1/4 | -1/2 | | Mar '27 Corn | 511 1/2 | Unchanged | | Nov '26 Beans | 1280 3/4 | +2 1/2 | | Jan '27 Beans | 1297 1/2 | +3 | | Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 692 1/4 | +9 1/4 | | Dec '26 KC Wheat | 742 1/4 | +7 | | Dec '26 Cotton | 80.86 | +1.98 | | Crude Oil (spot futures) | 88.80 | -2.31 | | US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 101.96 | +.24 | | Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,678 | +201 | ## Daily Glance Disappointing close after what seemed like promising early strength. Soybeans managed to hang on to a very small gain, but a far cry from their peak gain of 19 cents. Corn saw a peak gain of 5 1/2 before slipping into negative territory into the close, and wheat saw its early gains cut back as well. ### Want the rest of today's comment? Leave your name and email to read the full daily market comment, including technicals, weather and trade implications. The Brazilian presidential election saw a solid victory for the conservative Bolsanaro, and this boosted their currency, the Real, to sharp gains of over 4.5%. This had the effect of shutting off Brazilian farmer selling as well as making their exports more expensive to the world, both positive factors for our bean market, but they were unable to sustain the early gains. The other major news item was escalated talk of yield concerns in the US harvest as reports of damage caused by the recent excessive rains are being reported. Outside markets saw continued high volatility with stocks sharply higher despite a still cratering bond market where both the 10 year and long bond contracts sank to new 24 month lows (indicating higher interest rates). This supported the Dollar Index which rose to an 18 month high. The bond market weakness is reportedly due to rising inflation concerns, yet crude continued its recent weakness today, and precious metals continued their sideways action. ## Key Points/Developments **Technicals:** December corn traded down to 495 for the third day in a row and once again held it to the tick, and again settled at its lowest close since August 18 and a fourth straight close under the 50 day average near 507. The 495 area is first support, then the 490 area and 480 below that where the August rally paused, with resistance at the 5.00 area, then the 50 day average and 515. November beans also have a similar low for the last three days, between 1273-1274, but did manage a small gain today. They now have resistance at 1290, 1298-1300, and then 1320. Support is in the 1273 area, then the 50 day average near 1258. **Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread widened a half cent to 14 1/4 and the Nov/Jan bean spread also widened by a half cent, now at 16 3/4. **Weather:** Mostly dry weather is forecast for the next 5-7 days before rains return. ## Markets/Trading Implications Once today was all said and done, it was more of a sideways trade than anything else, and we suspect that will be the case as we approach the October Supply and Demand report on Friday. The yield uncertainty is higher than ever with the increased talk of quality concerns, and Friday's yield update is likely to be very impactful to the market. After last week's bearish corn stocks data, carryover expectations have increased and as discussed Friday, the corn market probably needs a yield cut of at least 1.0-1.5 bushels per acre to give corn an upward boost in the short term. Harvest pressure is a negative that needs to be overcome from that front. In the longer term, sentiment remains high that China will be in the market for some significant US corn buys. Beans continue to have the friendlier setup as their stocks to usage ratio remains significantly tighter than corn's, and November beans remain above their (upward trending) 50 day average, while December corn is below its (although the key average remains in an upward trend). Call anytime. ## Other Notes - USDA announced two flash sales today: 130 TMT of corn to Mexico and 104 MT of soybeans to Unknown. - As both wars rage on, Europe and eastern Europe's grain transportation routes continue to be severely challenged. - TStorm is closed this week and resumes regular reports October 14, so our weather updates will be lighter than usual until then. ## Static Notes - Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 29, the day before the stocks report, showed the funds lightening up across the board. Corn's net long came down nearly 37k to 378k. Soybeans' net long fell 24k to 241k, and wheat's net short grew from 13k to nearly 22k. - Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn lose 14 3/4 cents, November beans lose 27 3/4, and December Chicago wheat lose 24 1/2. In the three trading days since this report, corn has lost 24 1/4 cents, soybeans have lost 19 1/2, and Chicago wheat has lost 9 3/4. Have a nice evening! Clayton and Taylor --- **RISK DISCLAIMER:** Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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