--- title: Daily comment for Monday, September 14 description: A relatively quiet day but corn and soybeans managed to show some firmness after some early weakness in the night trade. image: https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-monday-september-14#main-content) [![CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png?width=300&height=135&name=CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png "CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3")](https://www.claytonpopecommodities.com/) [All posts](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/all) October 13, 2026 # Daily comment for Monday, September 14 ![Picture of Clayton Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/Clayton%20headshot.avif) By  [Clayton Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/clayton-pope)  ·  4 minute read | CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | Dec '26 Corn | 533 1/4 | +3 | | Mar '27 Corn | 548 | +2 1/2 | | Nov '26 Beans | 1304 1/4 | +7 3/4 | | Jan '27 Beans | 1320 1/4 | +8 1/4 | | Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 722 | -3 1/4 | | Dec '26 KC Wheat | 792 1/2 | -6 | | Dec '26 Cotton | 84.55 | -.51 | | Crude Oil (spot futures) | 100.72 | +.67 | | US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 99.12 | +.28 | | Dow Jones (spot futures) | 52,452 | -133 | ## Daily Glance A relatively quiet day but corn and soybeans managed to show some firmness after some early weakness in the night trade. A sharply higher crude oil market probably helped turn grains higher, and when crude started to fade (hit a peak gain of $4.90 to a new high for this move, and ended with a gain of only about 1.40), it seemed to drag wheat lower, but corn and beans managed to hang on to most of their peak gains for the session. ### Want the rest of today's comment? Leave your name and email to read the full daily market comment, including technicals, weather and trade implications. Weekend developments saw war action that has worsened export flows from the Mideast, and this was the main catalyst pushing crude higher. It also generated a lot of talk about the likelihood of future scarcity issues for fertilizer. But when Trump announced that he had convinced Russian and Ukraine leaders to stop bombing each other's energy facilities, this caused the sharp pullback in crude. These comments were met with a lot of skepticism regarding just how valid Trump's claims are, but crude stayed at the lower levels into the close. By the close, corn stayed within Friday's range; beans had dipped slightly below Friday's low in early action, but ended up recovering some of Friday's big losses. Outside markets were extremely volatile. Crude oil whipsawed as described above, the Dollar Index saw solid gains ending at its best close in eight sessions, and stocks were lower, but saw significant improvement from session lows. ## Key Points/Developments **Technicals:** December corn made up for Friday's loss, almost to the penny, and support is seen at 523-526, 518, and ultimately at its 50 day average at 491. Resistance stays 540 to 542, then 550. Nov beans' situation is little changed after Friday's bearish Key Reversal, but we have to say that Key Reversals have a relatively poor track record of holding in any market we watch over the last year or so. We see support at Friday's and today's lows of 1292-1293, and below that near the 20 day average near 1277, then 1250. Resistance is likely at 1310-1312, and then 1233-1235 **Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread narrowed another half cent today, ending at 14 3/4 cents. The Nov/Jan bean spread widened out another half cent to 16, putting that carry back to the widest of the move. **Weather:** TStorm made no changes for a third day, leaving corn and soybeans both at neutral and winter wheat at slightly unfavorable. TStorm closing comments: Heat in southern areas contrasts with seasonable to cool weather north through the weekend, which will help areas of rain and t-storms to turn much of the central U.S. considerably wetter (except in the mid-South), including the potential for field flooding in / near IA with time as t-storms today are followed by more later this week (especially within Wed.-Sat.). Upcoming rains will turn some of the Corn Belt wet ahead of corn and soybean harvesting, but with wetness unlikely to turn particularly notable from: 1) the lack of rain since mid-August, and 2) drier weather next week. Note that September will likely be the warmest in more than 48 years for U.S. corn, soybeans, and HRW wheat. In Brazil, wet conditions exist across a wide area after rains in recent days and weeks. First-corn and wheat are particularly wet and with more heavy rains ahead (resuming Fri.-Sun. when the next cool front passes, and then at times next week). ## Markets/Trading Implications A lot of choppy action which isn't surprising considering the peak uncertainty surrounding us. Bulls continue to dwell on their hope that the China visit (September 24) will yield big results (including, but not limited to, the lifting by China of their 10% tariff on imports of US ags). There was some weekend chatter that the planned meeting might be called off, but that seems to have been largely dismissed in today's discussions. They also seem to have a solid expectation that the USDA will lower both corn and soybean yields in future reports. And the El Nino forecast for South America this winter implies likely production concerns. Lastly, the inflation story--that big increases in future inflation is very likely--adds to their bullish expectations. The question is how much of this is already discounted by the market? Undoubtedly, some has been factored into prices considering the recent runup, but those points mentioned above certainly have the capability to add to gains in the future. On the bearish side is the old adage that a bull has to be fed, which makes the upcoming summit with China extremely important. Clearly the market is expecting positive news from this meeting, and that expectation has helped bolster prices to some extent. As for the yield question, that won't be revisited seriously until the next S&D (October 9), and the inflation story is pretty much always a factor, but takes a long time to unfold. Which leaves the China meeting as the most important variable in the near future. On marketing, that bean carry is attractive again, so rolling HTAs and hedges into deferred months is right back on the table, and corn's Dec/March offers the same. We continue to hold off on new sales. Call anytime. ## Other Notes - Federal Reserve meets Wednesday with their latest interest rate decision looming. It is highly anticipated that they will hike rates by .25%, which seemingly would be expected to firm the Dollar which could be a slight negative for our markets. - Initial meetings between representatives from the US and China took place this last weekend, but no solid news came out of the meetings. ## Static Notes - Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 8, showed funds still adding aggressively to their soybean longs. Corn's net long dipped a slight 6k contracts, leaving them net long a still large 425k contracts. Soybeans' net long grew by 25k to a net (record) long of 266k, while wheat net longs declined by 10k contracts, leaving them net long 4k. - Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn drop 13 cents, November beans lost 2 cents, and December Chicago wheat lost 36 cents. In the three days since this report, corn dropped another 3 cents, soybeans down another 20 cents, and Chicago wheat down 22 cents. Have a nice evening! Clayton and Taylor --- **RISK DISCLAIMER:** Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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