Daily comment for Thursday October 1
By
| CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Dec '26 Corn | 502 | +1 1/4 |
| Mar '27 Corn | 516 1/2 | +1 |
| Nov '26 Beans | 1284 | -9 |
| Jan '27 Beans | 1300 | -9 1/4 |
| Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 682 1/4 | +6 1/2 |
| Dec '26 KC Wheat | 737 1/4 | +4 1/4 |
| Dec '26 Cotton | 77.79 | -.73 |
| Crude Oil (spot futures) | 93.05 | +2.63 |
| US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 101.94 | +.75 |
| Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,221 | -57 |
Daily Glance
Some more long liquidation today as traders continue to digest yesterday's bearish corn and neutral soybean data. Weekly exports were poor for corn and wheat and although soybeans fared better than last week, they too were less than their recent pace.
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Open interest in corn actually increased yesterday which is surprising....one would have thought that with yesterday's heavy losses, the funds would have dumped a lot of longs, but that is questionable in light of the Open Interest increase.
Corn dipped down to about a 5-6 week low, and soybeans to a one month low, before corn turned positive in late action and beans cut losses considerably.
Outside markets featured another strong day for the Dollar Index which pushed up to about an 18 month high, which is another negative for our markets. Bonds dropped to a new low for the move in early action but reversed to finally show a small gain after a brutal several weeks of losses. Stocks saw a two-sided choppy trade, and were mixed as of the grain close.
Key Points/Developments
Technicals: December corn slipped to a new low for the move, seeing prices not seen since August 19. Today's close is the second day below the important 50 day average (now at 507) which suggests more long fund liquidation is likely. Support is now at the 490 area and then 480.where the August rally paused, with resistance at the 50 day average near 507, then 515.
November beans should see some support near today's low at 1274 and then at their 50 day average at 1257. Resistance is at the 1282-1284 area, then the 1300 area.
Spreads: The Dec/Mar corn spread and the Nov/Jan bean spread saw little change today.
Weather: TStorm made no changes again today, leaving corn, soybeans and winter wheat all at slightly favorable.
A large-scale harvesting and planting window ahead in the U.S., while very stormy weather driven by El Niño continues in South America.
Rain rapidly ends over the next 12 to 18 hours across most of the central U.S., except for some lingering rain tomorrow in the mid-South. Areas of rain then focus on SRW wheat in the Southeast, while the Plains and western Corn Belt turn / stay dry for at least 10 to 15 days, and with only some minor rain chances in the eastern Corn Belt and mid-South starting around October 12.
In South America, El Niño-driven rains continue through mid-October (and likely longer) in southern Brazil as very wet weather continues. Rain will also reach into central Brazil to encourage soybean planting, and continues to mark an El Niño that is more similar to 1982 and 1997 than 2015 and 2023. Argentina will also tap into rains after a dry winter; soil moisture improves for early-corn, sunflowers, and wheat.
Their YieldCast model was unchanged at a big 180.0 for corn and 52.2 for soybeans. That is worrisome for corn considering their excellent track record and with the USDA at 178.5 and 52.8.
Markets/Trading Implications
Some more blood letting today, but prices firmed into the close to moderate losses.
Some stabilization would probably bode well to stop further long fund liquidation which could bring on some sideways action into the October 9 S&D. However, the second close below the December corn 50 day average is worrisome...corn seems more vulnerable than beans in the short term.
Call anytime.
Other Notes
- China remains on holiday for the remainder of the week and although they could continue to make some purchases during this period, it is usually light to no activity during holidays.
- The next USDA yield update is in the October 9 S&D, but some private estimates will be coming out soon with SP Global (the old Informa) due out later this week.
Static Notes
- Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 22, showed the funds moving back into beans while trimming corn. Corn's net long came down 12k to 414k. Soybeans' net long grew 20k to 265k, and wheat's net short deepened from nearly 5k to 13k.
- Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn gain 1 cent, November beans gain 6 3/4, and December Chicago wheat lose 11 1/4. In the six trading days since this report, corn has lost 36 cents, soybeans have lost 32 1/2, and Chicago wheat has lost 41 1/2.
Have a nice evening!
Clayton and Taylor
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