| CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| Dec '26 Corn | 527 1/2 | -1 1/2 |
| Mar '27 Corn | 541 1/2 | -2 |
| Nov '26 Beans | 1317 1/2 | -1/2 |
| Jan '27 Beans | 1332 | -1 3/4 |
| Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 707 | -1 1/2 |
| Dec '26 KC Wheat | 767 | -4 3/4 |
| Dec '26 Cotton | 83.31 | +.37 |
| Crude Oil (spot futures) | 95.23 | +2.89 |
| US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 101.01 | +.16 |
| Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,675 | -198 |
The first day of formal meetings brought a third straight session with a lower lean, although beans and wheat did come well off their lows into the close. Corn stayed in a narrow range and never traded much above yesterday's close, while beans swung from up nearly 10 to down 8 before finishing just fractionally lower.
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Wheat slipped for a third straight day, with Chicago dipping to $7.00 before bouncing, even as Russia stepped up its strikes on Ukraine while Zelenskyy was addressing the UN.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said late Wednesday the two sides agreed to extend the Busan trade truce two more months to January 10th, when China reportedly wanted a full year, and President Trump posted about progress on market access for US farmers without offering any specifics. There has been nothing yet on tariffs or the non soybean purchases.
The formal meeting itself ran a little over an hour and covered trade, AI, Taiwan, critical minerals and the war in Iran. Xi said he wants Chinese companies treated fairly here and competition between the two kept within bounds, and according to Chinese state media he pressed the US to oppose Taiwan independence.
Ambassador Greer had said to expect some announcements on agriculture and non tariff barriers, but none had come as of this afternoon, and China still hasn't bought any US corn this season. Xi wraps up the visit Friday after tonight's state dinner.
China did book another 120,000 tons of US beans in today's flash sale.
Crude added nearly three dollars and the 10 year Treasury yield pushed to its highest level since 2004 on inflation worries, while the dollar firmed a bit and the Dow lost about 200 points.
Technicals: December corn dipped to 525 1/2 today, holding last Friday's low to the tick, and topped out at 530 3/4. That keeps the 525 area as first support, with the 520 area below it and the 50 day average down around 500.
Resistance hasn't changed, with the 535 area first, then Tuesday's high of 544 1/2 and the contract high at 550.
November beans traded as high as 1327 3/4 before dipping to 1310, a second straight day testing the 1310 area, and bounced 7 1/2 cents off it into the close. Below that comes Friday's low of 1300, then the 1293 area.
The 1332 area, which has turned beans back three times this month, is still the resistance to beat.
Spreads: The Dec/Mar corn spread narrowed a half cent to 14 after widening the last two days. The Nov/Jan bean spread narrowed 1 1/4 cents to 14 1/2, with western belt processors still paying up for spot bushels while harvest there stalls out.
Weather: TStorm upgraded winter wheat to slightly favorable today, its first ratings change in eight reports, while corn and soybeans stayed at neutral.
The wettest corn and bean areas aren't getting a break. Pockets of rain stay focused on the Plains and western Iowa into the weekend, then a strong system brings rain to much of the Plains and western belt Monday through Wednesday.
Illinois, Indiana and Ohio now look to pick up some storms Tuesday through Thursday, though a lot less than out west. After that, it comes down to whether cool fronts bring in drier air or the east turns mild and wet again.
Either way, TStorm figures harvest is in for some challenging conditions in and around Iowa. The midday GFS run came out about twice as wet as the one before it, with close to 3 inches for corn and beans, but TStorm isn't forecasting that much rain.
In South America, Argentina gets rain from next week on, and a stormier stretch starting late next week should get central Brazil's soybean planting going.
The selling into the start of the meetings was the market telling us not to expect much to be announced publicly, or that what did come out would disappoint. So far that has been the right call, and the bulls have been left wanting by what's come out.
That doesn't make it bearish, at least not yet. China is well on its way on the soybean commitment, and there is some positive momentum toward it moving on to non soybean products soon as well. As we've been saying though, we're hesitant to think China suddenly turns into an aggressive buyer of our corn given where world prices are.
There is also still a chance more detail comes out tomorrow, or like the last meeting, later this weekend once both sides are home and can speak more freely. Last time, the Sunday fact sheet changed the tone of the market in a hurry.
With little else to lean on, we'd expect somewhat larger pullbacks from here. That said, we think the market would have a tough time getting too far below 1280 in November beans and 515 in December corn.
Call anytime.
Have a nice evening!
Clayton and Taylor
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