---
title: Daily comment for Tuesday, October 13
description: Another choppy session that ended close to where it started.
---

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# [Daily comment for Tuesday, October 13](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-tuesday-october-13)

 Written by [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope) | Oct 13, 2026, 10:02:02 PM

| CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Dec '26 Corn | 482 3/4 | -1/4 |
| Mar '27 Corn | 496 1/2 | -3/4 |
| Nov '26 Beans | 1283 3/4 | -4 |
| Jan '27 Beans | 1300 | -4 3/4 |
| Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 669 1/4 | -3 |
| Dec '26 KC Wheat | 712 1/4 | -3 |
| Dec '26 Cotton | 80.53 | -.07 |
| Crude Oil (spot futures) | 94.14 | +.40 |
| US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 102.00 | -.37 |
| Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,935 | -175 |

## Daily Glance

Another choppy session that ended close to where it started. Corn and beans both rallied through the morning and gave it all back by noon, with corn finishing a quarter cent lower and beans a few cents lower after coming up just short of the 13.00 area. Wheat was higher early on the Black Sea headlines and closed modestly lower, still within about 8 cents of Friday's low.

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The early buying had plenty behind it. Another ship was sunk off the Bulgarian coast overnight with eleven sailors missing, the Baltic states moved to shut Russian grain out of their ports, and France cut its corn crop by nearly half on the drought, sending Paris corn to new contract highs. On top of that, the EPA said it will roll the full 1.76 billion gallons of last year's small refinery exemptions into the 2026 and 2027 blending requirements.

None of it held. Bean oil ran better than a dollar higher on the EPA news and then reversed to close lower, which took meal and beans down with it, and with USDA back in the office, harvest selling and another day without a sign of China were enough to turn corn around as well. The head of research at COFCO said import margins don't work for U.S. corn yet, which fit the mood.

Cotton was little changed, with harvest running right around its average pace nationally.

Outside markets were anything but quiet. Crude was down close to a dollar and a half overnight, then turned on more Middle East headlines and ran nearly three dollars off that low by the close to finish modestly higher. The Dow opened sharply higher as the big banks kicked off earnings season and reversed to close lower, a swing of around 700 points from high to low, with JPMorgan missing and a Chinese memory chip announcement hitting the chip stocks, while the dollar was a little lower.

## Key Points/Developments

**Technicals:** December corn dipped to 478 overnight, ran to 488 1/4 in the first hour of the day session and then drifted back to settle a quarter lower. That high stopped a couple cents shy of the 490 area, the first of the old support levels that gave way Friday, and the close leaves it right around the 480 area and still well under its 50 day average near 509. Support is Friday's 470 1/4 low and then 458, with resistance at the 490 area, then the 495 area and the 50 day.

November beans put in their 1275 1/4 low overnight, holding the 1273 area for the third session in a row, then stalled at 1297 3/4 midmorning, a couple cents under the 1300 area, and gave most of the rally back by noon. The 50 day average sits just under that support near 1268. Resistance is the 1300 area that stopped them today, then the 1305 area and 1320.

**Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread narrowed a half cent to 13 3/4, and the Nov/Jan bean spread narrowed three quarters of a cent to 16 1/4.

**Weather:** TStorm is still closed and is back tomorrow, so there are no ratings to report until then.

The open harvest window across the central U.S. holds through midweek with temperatures still running above normal, before rain working up from Mexico into the western belt slows things down late in the week.

## Markets/Trading Implications

The choppy trade we've been talking about continues, and today was a day of bumping heads and backing off. Corn got within a couple cents of the 490 area that was support until Friday, beans got within a couple cents of 1300, and neither could get through. With corn still well under its 50 day average, it's worth remembering that a limit down day usually gets retested at some point. We're not calling for it, but it's the caution.

China gave us nothing again. There's no sign of a corn program starting, and the longer corn sits under the 50 day without that buying showing up, the more uneasy what's left of the fund length gets, and there's still a good bit of it.

Beans still have the better technical picture, and the 1273 area holding for a third day is part of why, but 1300 has turned into the pivot on the daily chart and today it stopped them again. The EPA announcement should have been a help, and instead bean oil sold the news, so the product side wasn't there to lean on.

**What we were talking about today**

Our weekly company call was mostly about one question: is the selling in corn done? Our answer was probably not yet. Open interest is still falling on rallies, which tells us the funds are using strength to lighten up rather than buying it, so a quick V bottom isn't what we'd expect. The flip side is that world corn prices are at all time highs and Europe likely needs more of our corn than anyone is counting, so the downside max from here looks like another 30 cents or so, not a bear market.

Beans came up as the market in the better spot. The funds aren't shedding beans the way they are corn, and anybody who has been long corn against short beans keeps ending up underwater.

And from the Southeast, our best count after calls to gins and insurance contacts is around 50,000 acres of cotton lost to the hurricane. A big deal locally, small against the national crop.

Call anytime.

## Other Notes

- Today's delayed Crop Progress report has corn harvest at 33% against a 39% average and soybeans at 46% against 50%, with Iowa doubling to 14% on corn and jumping from 5% to 31% on beans. Corn's good to excellent rating picked up 2 points to 56% after last week's rare 3 point drop, and beans held at 57%.
- Export inspections for the week ending October 9 came in at 51 million bushels of corn, 40 million of beans and 11 million of wheat. For the marketing year, corn shipments are running about 17 million bushels ahead of last year and beans are up 40 million, while wheat is well behind.
- France's farm ministry cut its corn crop to 7.2 million tons, down 47% from last year on the drought. Some in the trade now have Europe importing 27 to 28 million tons of corn this year against USDA's 23, with better than 450 million bushels of it coming from the U.S., close to 150 million more than last year.
- Russia shipped less than half a million tons of wheat in the first ten days of October, well under what the trade expected, with the Black Sea shut and the Baltic states now moving to block Russian grain from their ports as well.
- AgRural has Brazil's soybean planting at 15% nationally, with Mato Grosso running well ahead of that after last week's rain.

## Static Notes

- Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, October 6 showed the funds still trimming corn while adding a little in beans. Corn's net long came down about 60k to 317k. Soybeans' net long rose about 10k to 252k, and wheat's net short grew from nearly 22k to nearly 30k.
- Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn lose 14 cents, November beans gain 5 1/4, and December Chicago wheat gain 11 1/2. In the five trading days since this report, corn has lost 25 1/4 cents, soybeans have lost 19 1/4, and Chicago wheat has lost 35.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

**RISK DISCLAIMER:**  
Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.  
Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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