---
title: Daily comment for Tuesday, October 6
description: A much better day, and this time the early strength stuck.
---

[Newsletters](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters)

# [Daily comment for Tuesday, October 6](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-tuesday-october-6)

 Written by [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope) | Oct 6, 2026, 9:02:03 PM

| CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Dec '26 Corn | 508 | +10 3/4 |
| Mar '27 Corn | 522 1/4 | +10 3/4 |
| Nov '26 Beans | 1303 | +22 1/4 |
| Jan '27 Beans | 1319 1/4 | +21 3/4 |
| Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 704 1/4 | +12 |
| Dec '26 KC Wheat | 756 1/4 | +14 |
| Dec '26 Cotton | 81.20 | +.34 |
| Crude Oil (spot futures) | 89.81 | +.39 |
| US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 101.62 | -.28 |
| Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,822 | +263 |

## Daily Glance

A much better day, and this time the early strength stuck. Corn and beans were firm overnight just like Monday, but instead of fading they kept adding to their gains through the day session, eventually taking out Monday's highs. Corn had its best close since before last week's stocks report, and beans closed over 1300 for the first time since September 25, whipping out all the loses following last weeks report.

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Monday afternoon's crop ratings were the spark, at least initially. Corn's good/excellent rating fell 3 points and beans lost 1, with the damage centered where the heavy rains fell from Kansas and Nebraska into Iowa, Illinois and Ohio, and a drop that size is rare this late in the year. It put some numbers behind the yield and quality talk that has been building.

Beans were the leader, with meal strong and Brazil's Real holding on to Monday's sharp gains. China is reportedly already asking for offers on Gulf soybeans with its Golden Week holiday ending Friday, and the President told a rally in Nebraska Monday night that China will be "doubling up" on what it buys from us.

Wheat was higher for a second day, with Chicago closing back over 7.00. Russian drones hit two vessels carrying Ukrainian grain off the coast of Bulgaria, well outside the main Black Sea ports, and European wheat and corn futures were higher as well.

Cotton was modestly higher, with a lot of chatter about potential hurricane damage as a tropical system takes aim at the Southeast this weekend.

Outside markets had a quieter tone. The Nasdaq made a new all time high before fading late and still finished higher along with the Dow, crude was up a little, and the dollar backed off Monday's 18 month high.

## Key Points/Developments

**Technicals:** December corn never got under 496, a cent above the 495 low that held to the tick the last three sessions, then took out Monday's high and ran to 509 before settling at 508. That puts it right on its 50 day average, which has edged up to the 508 area. Resistance above here is 515 and then the 525 area where corn stalled ahead of the report, with support back at the 5.00 area and then 495.

November beans held 1278 1/4 on the low, went through both the 1290 and 1300 resistance and traded up to 1305 before settling a couple of cents under it. The 1305 area is the one to watch, as it held as support for much of September and beans have not closed above it since breaking under it on the 28th. Beyond that is 1320, with support at the 1290 area, then the 1273 area and the 50 day average near 1260.

**Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread was unchanged at 14 1/4, with both months up the same amount. The Nov/Jan bean spread narrowed a half cent to 16 1/4, giving back Monday's widening, even as processors in the western belt have dropped their basis bids quite a bit from last week now that harvest is picking up.

**Weather:** Dry, warm and sunny weather holds across the Midwest through Saturday, which is firming up soils and letting harvest pick up a little more each day, including in Iowa where it is furthest behind. Rain chances increase after that, with showers and storms expected back in the Midwest around the 13th to 15th.

The Southeast is the wet spot, with a tropical system likely to form in the Gulf and bring 3 to 6 inches of rain or more through the weekend. In Brazil, the flooded south is looking at another 4 to 12 inches over the next 10 days on ground that can't hold it, while the north is trending drier and bears watching.

## Markets/Trading Implications

A nice day, and it came right where it needed to. Last week we said the short term direction in corn rested with the funds, since most of what they added from the middle of August on was bought at or above 5.00. After corn held 495 three days in a row, today looked like the funds protecting those longs right where we thought they would have to.

We've called this area an important pivot spot for corn, and for now it has held. They have still been sellers of something like 100,000 contracts since the stocks report by some estimates, so one good day doesn't settle it, but it's a start.

Beans did their part too, but they have a little more to prove. They'll need to get back above the 1305 area on a closing basis before we'd feel good about the downside being limited, and today they came up just short of it.

It's all about Friday's report from here, though, and both markets probably need friendly numbers to build on today. For corn, the average guess has the yield coming down about seven tenths of a bushel, short of the bushel to bushel and a half we've said it takes to offset last week's stocks number, although this week's ratings drop at least opens the door to more.

We're hard pressed to think we see a friendly number in beans. The trade has the bean yield a touch higher than last month, and outside of some talk of patchy areas, most feel that crop is there.

With that in mind, this is a good spot to catch up on harvest bean bushels if you're behind and willing to sell in front of a report.

Call anytime.

## Other Notes

- Monday's Crop Progress report left corn's good/excellent rating at 54% and soybeans at 57%. Corn harvest is 23% complete and soybeans are 25%, but Iowa is only 7% done on corn and 5% on beans, a good week and a half behind.
- In nearly four decades of weekly ratings, the only other time corn lost 3 points in a single October week was 1993. USDA's yield that year dropped 3 bushels in the October report and another 7 in November on poor test weights.
- US corn exports to the EU hit 49 million bushels in August, the biggest month to those countries since 1982, and the 311 million shipped during the 2025/26 marketing year was the most since 1983/84. With Paris corn back at contract highs and Black Sea supplies getting harder to move, we'd expect that business to continue.
- Friday brings the October Supply and Demand report at 11:00. Below is a summary of the average trade guesses:

## Static Notes

- Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 29, the day before the stocks report, showed the funds lightening up across the board. Corn's net long came down nearly 37k to 378k. Soybeans' net long fell 24k to 241k, and wheat's net short grew from 13k to nearly 22k.
- Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn lose 14 3/4 cents, November beans lose 27 3/4, and December Chicago wheat lose 24 1/2. In the five trading days since this report, corn has lost 14 cents, soybeans have gained 5 1/4, and Chicago wheat has gained 11 1/2.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

**RISK DISCLAIMER:**  
Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.  
Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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