--- title: Daily comment for Tuesday, September 22 description: Quiet, two sided trade today after Monday's surge, and on noticeably lighter volume. image: https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg --- [Skip to content](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-tuesday-september-22#main-content) [![CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png?width=300&height=135&name=CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%203-3.png "CLAYTON POPE COMMODITIES 3-3")](https://www.claytonpopecommodities.com/) [All posts](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/all) October 13, 2026 # Daily comment for Tuesday, September 22 ![Picture of Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hs-fs/hubfs/1728420772119.jpg?width=50&name=1728420772119.jpg) By  [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope)  ·  4 minute read | CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | Dec '26 Corn | 536 3/4 | -6 1/4 | | Mar '27 Corn | 551 | -5 3/4 | | Nov '26 Beans | 1325 1/2 | -2 1/2 | | Jan '27 Beans | 1341 1/4 | -2 3/4 | | Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 717 1/4 | -9 1/2 | | Dec '26 KC Wheat | 781 1/4 | -13 1/4 | | Dec '26 Cotton | 82.87 | -.55 | | Crude Oil (spot futures) | 90.59 | -1.79 | | US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 100.310 | +.15 | | Dow Jones (spot futures) | 52,300 | -177 | ## Daily Glance Quiet, two sided trade today after Monday's surge, and on noticeably lighter volume. Everything was firmer to start and softer by the end of it, even with the Summit with China officially starting in two days. ### Want the rest of today's comment? Leave your name and email to read the full daily market comment, including technicals, weather and trade implications. Beans handled it the best of the three. They firmed overnight right into last week's highs, although couldn'tt break through before eventualyl closing modestly lower. Corn gave back a little more than a third of Monday's fifteen cent gain. Wheat was the weak spot, with Chicago giving back most of what it picked up yesterday. The market's attention drifted off China for most of the morning and onto the UN General Assembly, where the President spoke and had encouraging things to say about progress between Russia and Ukraine, although it seemed to us a bit aggressive considering the current state of conflict. Greer made comments late in the day that China had actually started on its 17 mmt non soybean agricultural goods, a claim that China has piblicly never admitted to making, but a good sign nonetheless. We havent seen any proof those sales yet, but certainly added to the recent rumors that China may indeed be considering our corn. Outside markets were softer across the board. Crude gave back more than a dollar and a half after Monday's break, equities slipped from their highs, and the dollar firmed. ## Key Points/Developments **Technicals:** December corn never got going, topping out at 544 1/2 without making a run at the contract high of 550, then breaking through the 540 support we flagged yesterday and trading all the way down to 535 1/2 before settling a bit above that. The 535 area is where it sits now, with the 520 area under it, and the 50 day average still well below at 499. Resistance is unchanged at 550 and then the 560 area. November beans made their run overnight and got turned away in the same spot as last week. Today's high of 1331 1/2 is the third session this month to stall in the 1332 area without getting through the 1335 area above it, after topping out at 1332 1/4 on the 16th and 1331 3/4 on the 17th. Until that 1335 area gives way, 1350 and 1385 are academic. Support is the 1310 area, which was never threatened today, and then the 1293 area. **Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread widened back out to 14 1/4 cents after narrowing to 13 3/4 yesterday. The Nov/Jan bean spread went the other way, tightening another quarter cent to 15 3/4. They moved together yesterday and split today, which fits what each crop is dealing with, corn rebuilding carry as harvest bushels show up and beans still having carry pulled out of them by processors paying up for spot bushels. **Weather:** TStorm made no changes again today, leaving corn, soybeans, and winter wheat all at neutral for a sixth straight report. The split in the forecast is the piece that matters to us. The western half of the corn and soybean areas stays wet for a while yet, and with 10 percent of the corn and 12 percent of the beans having taken at least 300 percent of normal rain over the last fifteen days, TStorm thinks it will be a while before harvest can accelerate in Iowa. High pressure over the eastern belt is the other half of it, holding rainfall down through next week and letting Illinois, Indiana and Ohio run. This is a harvest pace story rather than a crop threat, and TStorm is still not buying the wet and expensive harvest everyone has been talking about. ## Markets/Trading Implications Monday's rally looks like it was short covering rather than new money. Open interest fell in both corn and Chicago wheat on a day everything closed near its highs, and beans were the only one of the three that added. That matters, because the bull case Monday leaned on included funds willing to add to their length, and the positioning data did not back that up. With so many talking about the possibility of Chinese corn purchases, the pain trade here is lower in the short run. This morning's rumor is the evidence. When a market cannot do anything with the news everyone has been waiting on, the bushels are already owned by people hoping for it, and that is not a comfortable spot two days ahead of a headline event. Beans turning back from last week's highs for the third time says much the same thing. All in all, today had the feel of a bit of a bull trap. That said, it would not take much to change course, and a genuinely big announcement out of Thursday and Friday would do it. A pop on a tariff cut or a reaffirmation of what China has already agreed to is the kind of thing we would sell into rather than chase. Real corn and wheat buying from private Chinese importers is a different animal, because stocks are tight enough that it would matter and nobody has it in their numbers. The math doesn't make much sense for the time being, however, thus a purchase of those products would likely be more ceremonial than anything. Either way, we would expect volatility to start to pick up into the end of the week and of course into next weeks quarterly stocks report. ## Other Notes - Monday's Crop Progress report also had winter wheat seeding at 17 percent planted and 2 percent emerged. - Ambassador Greer indicated this week that China has already started on the 17 billion dollars of additional ag purchases, with three to four billion of it done. None of that appears to be grain, which would have shown up in the daily or weekly sales reports. Worth keeping in mind that a private buyer can accumulate bushels here without any of it being reported until it loads out, so the absence of a flash sale is not proof of anything either way. Whatever gets bought under that package has to be completed by the end of December. ## Static Notes - Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 15, showed the funds backing away from beans. Corn's net long was all but unchanged at 427k contracts. Soybeans' net long came down 21k to 245k, off the near record set the week before, while wheat flipped from a net long of 4k to a net short of nearly 5k. - Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn gain 2 1/4 cents, November beans gain 2 1/2, and December Chicago wheat lose 18 1/2. In the five trading days since this report, corn has gained a penny, soybeans have gained 6 3/4 cents, and Chicago wheat has lost 11 1/4. Have a nice evening! Clayton and Taylor --- **RISK DISCLAIMER:** Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. 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Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Copyright © 2026, Clayton Pope Commodities ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Taylor Pope", "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope" }, "dateModified" : "2026-10-13T20:32:26.560Z", "datePublished" : "2026-09-22T21:25:17.000Z", "headline" : "Daily comment for Tuesday, September 22", "image" : [ "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-tuesday-september-22", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/hubfs/Untitled%20design.png" } } } ``` ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "Article", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : [ "Taylor Pope" ], "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope" }, "datePublished" : "2026-09-22T21:25:17+0000", "description" : "Quiet, two sided trade today after Monday's surge, and on noticeably lighter volume.", "headline" : "Daily comment for Tuesday, September 22", "image" : "https://44292880.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/44292880/CLAYTON%20POPE%20COMMODITIES%201-01.jpg", "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "" }, "name" : "Clayton Pope Commodities" }, "url" : "https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-tuesday-september-22" } ```