Daily comment for Wednesday June 24

It was a general "risk off" day as numerous other markets were pressured lower including crude oil, precious metals, cotton, bitcoin, and others.

Stocks were mixed most of the day with the Dow staying stubbornly firm, but a late rally (after the cash stock market closed) lifted all major indices to higher ground. Bonds were sharply higher, continuing their recent strength, and the Dollar Index pushed up to new year long highs.

Key Points/Developments

Technicals: Corn's slide continues with today's action taking front month July to a new contract low by a quarter of a cent (405 3/4) before it firmed a couple of cents into the close. So today's low should provide some support, with more below near 400. On the upside, 411 remains the nearby objective and then the 422-424 area we have been talking about for weeks.

As for July beans, recent support levels have been violated, now leaving nearby support at today's low of 1107, then 1094. Resistance is likely at 1116-1118 and then 1140.

Spreads: The July/November carry widened slightly today, closing at 26 1/4, its widest settlement to date as the trade senses old crop is running out of time to be rescued by any significant increase in Chinese purchases. With First Notice Day for the July contract coming up fast (next Tuesday), the focus will soon be on the August/November spread.

The July/Dec corn spread widened by a quarter cent today, closing at 27 3/4 cents, approaching its widest close at 29 1/2 last week. This spread has continued to remain historically weak despite strong export demand as the trade sees carryover levels as more than adequate in spite of the decent demand.

Weather: More talk of the approaching heat wave in the US, forecast to begin this Sunday and to last 5-7 days. The trade is obviously not concerned with this, and the heat and dryness will actually be very welcome for many areas that have seen excessive rains.

Here are TStorm's closing comments:

Coolness continues through Saturday, followed by a rapid and sharp transition to heat starting Sun.-Mon. Heat will form a large upper-level high in the eastern U.S. early next week, which will then drift westward over the course of next week, causing at least 5 to 7 days of highs around the mid-90s / mid-70s for 5 to 7 days for corn and soybeans. The uncertainty follows, as it is unclear whether the high will continue to drift westward (thereby allowing seasonably-cooler air to envelop the southeast half of corn and soybeans for at least several days starting July 4-6), or it will stay near enough to cause heat to continue into the second week of July. We continue to forecast a continuation of heat for the northwest third to half of corn and soybeans 10 to 15 days out, but tapering to seasonableness east based on the uncertainties.

Markets/Trading Implications

Disappointing action for sure as the market continues to completely ignore several arguably price friendly factors including the coming heat in the US (and unknown duration), a blistering heat wave affecting corn and wheat crops in the EU, a very damaged Russia and Ukraine area which could lead to harvest and shipping challenges, possible buying from Iran (see below) , and the never ending expectation/hope that China will step up its ag purchases.

Perhaps the biggest report of the year is next Tuesday as well, and while the consensus seems to be a one to two million shift from corn to soybean acres, that is certainly no given and another reason we do not think it makes a lot of sense for the funds to keep aggressively selling at these levels. As we have said for some time, carryovers are hardly burdensome, and thus even a slight shift could carry major implications.

Perhaps the biggest headwind in the short term is first notice day, a time when there will be plenty of decisions to be made for those with July basis contracts in place. As we have mentioned on the voiceblast, we are happy to talk through those with anyone weighing what to do, and with the downside looking limited we would be hesitant to price old crop bushels down here, but realize its not that simple with bills and logistical reasons at stake.

Other Notes

• The trade continues to disregard the possibility that China will step up and lower their import tariffs that would be expected to lead to increased ag purchases. The Trump administration continues to claim agreements were made, but China still has not acknowledged any such thing.
• And in a similar vein, Trump is now claiming that Iran will secure $500 million in US ag goods upon the release of sanctioned Iran funds. Several Iran officials have denied that is the case, and say that they are free to spend the funds however they wish.
• Chances are improving for a stand alone E15 blending bill to pass the Senate (it already passed the House). It would be expected to add somewhat more than 2 billion bushels of corn usage over the next 5-7 years.
• Here are the updated daily new crop and weekly corn, soybean and wheat charts, as well as a daily and weekly of the very influential crude oil market.

Static Notes

• The Commitment of Traders report for trading through Tuesday, June 16 showed actively traded funds sold a net 41k corn contracts, taking net shorts up to 46k. They sold 38k soybeans, bringing net longs down to 53k, and bought 10k Chicago wheat, reducing net shorts to 70k.
  In the corresponding week of price activity, July corn lost 6 cents, July beans gained 16 cents, and Chicago wheat gained 11 cents. In the three days since this report, corn lost another 2 cents, soybeans lost 14 cents, and Chicago wheat gained another 2 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

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