---
title: Daily comment for Wednesday, September 16
description: A back and forth session for our markets.
---

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# [Daily comment for Wednesday, September 16](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-wednesday-september-16)

 Written by [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope) | Sep 16, 2026, 10:08:24 PM

| CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Dec '26 Corn | 534 1/4 | -1 1/2 |
| Mar '27 Corn | 548 3/4 | -1 1/2 |
| Nov '26 Beans | 1320 1/2 | +1 3/4 |
| Jan '27 Beans | 1337 1/4 | +2 |
| Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 730 3/4 | +2 1/4 |
| Dec '26 KC Wheat | 799 1/2 | +3 1/4 |
| Dec '26 Cotton | 84.21 | -.27 |
| Crude Oil (spot futures) | 102.43 | -3.40 |
| US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 100.04 | +.68 |
| Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,915 | -611 |

## Daily Glance

A back and forth session for our markets. Overnight it looked like corn and beans wanted to make another run at their recent contract highs, with beans up more than 13 cents at one point, but selling right from the open of the day session changed the tune in a hurry. Both firmed late, where beans finished modestly higher and corn modestly lower, each well off its lows, while wheat worked both sides of unchanged before closing higher.

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There just wasn't much to feed the bull, with no new flash sales since last Friday. Adding to the hesitation were rumors that President Xi had a health scare at a banquet in India a few days ago, raising questions about whether he still makes the September 24 trip to Washington. Who knows how much of that is true, but a postponement or cancellation would be taken as a negative even if it had nothing to do with trade.

Outside markets were all about the Fed, which delivered its first rate hike in three years. The hike was widely expected, but equities that were tentatively higher ahead of the announcement still finished sharply lower, with the Dow losing more than 600 points, while the dollar pushed back above 100. Crude gave back most of yesterday's jump.

## Key Points/Developments

**Technicals:** Dec corn pushed up to 539 1/4 overnight, just shy of the 540 to 542 resistance we have been watching, before selling back to 529. That low held above support at 526 to 527, with Friday's low near 523 and 518 below that, and the 50 day average in the low 490s. Resistance remains 540 to 542, then Friday's high near 545 and the contract high just under 550.

Nov beans came within a cent of the 1333 to 1335 resistance overnight, topping out at 1332 1/4, before sliding back to 1313 1/2. That held above the 1310 to 1312 area we said should now act as support, with 1292 to 1294 the key support below it, then the 20 day average in the low 1280s and 1250. Resistance stays at 1333 to 1335.

**Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread held unchanged at 14 1/2 cents. The Nov/Jan bean spread widened another quarter cent to 16 3/4, again a new widest for the move.

**Weather:** TStorm made no changes to its ratings today, leaving corn, soybeans, and winter wheat all at neutral. It did trim its own corn yield estimate to 180.0 from 180.4 and raised soybeans to 52.2 from 51.9, moving a little closer to USDA's 178.5 and 52.8.

TStorm closing comments:

A cool front and waves of energy turn much of the Plains and Corn Belt considerably wetter over the next five to seven days, with the heaviest totals across the northern Corn Belt. Harvest should still probably be okay, with limited rain in the south, drier weather in the north next week, and most harvesting in the wettest areas still one to three weeks away. Temperatures stay warmer than normal, likely making this the warmest September in more than 48 years for corn and soybeans.

In Brazil, heavy rain continues across southern areas in an unusually wet September.

## Markets/Trading Implications

The trend in both corn and beans undoubtedly remains higher, and today did nothing to change that. That said, outside of a major fundamental catalyst, we continue to think upside is limited in the short term, and more than likely both markets keep trading their recent ranges.

In beans, the funds have been quick to defend the low end of the range, but it is hard to see them paying up through the top of it without something new to buy.

Corn is in much the same spot. We'd have to think the funds hang on to most of their length for now with a whole South American growing season still ahead, but holding length is not the same as adding to it, especially with more bushels showing up every week.

The most obvious candidate for a catalyst is still the September 24 summit, and even there, a good deal of optimism is already built into the price.

Call anytime.

## Other Notes

- Following today's Fed hike, bond markets are now pricing in another two to three rate increases over the next two quarters.
- Weekly EIA data showed US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell another million barrels to 708 million as of September 11, a new 42 year low. Gasoline stocks rose a million barrels to 208 million, but are still 5% below a year ago.

## Static Notes

- Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 8, showed funds still adding aggressively to their soybean longs. Corn's net long dipped a slight 6k contracts, leaving them net long a still large 425k contracts. Soybeans' net long grew by 25k to a near record net long of 266k, while wheat net longs declined by 10k contracts, leaving them net long 4k.
- Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn drop 13 cents, November beans lost 2 cents, and December Chicago wheat lost 36 cents. In the six trading days since this report, corn gained 3/4 cent, soybeans gained 4 1/4 cents, and Chicago wheat lost 16 1/4 cents.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

**RISK DISCLAIMER:**  
Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.  
Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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