---
title: Daily comment for Wednesday, September 30
description: The quarterly stocks report landed on corn, and it landed hard.
---

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# [Daily comment for Wednesday, September 30](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/daily-comment-for-wednesday-september-30)

 Written by [Taylor Pope](https://blog.claytonpopecommodities.com/newsletters/author/taylor-pope) | Sep 30, 2026, 8:45:27 PM

| CONTRACT | CLOSE | NET CHANGE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Dec '26 Corn | 500 3/4 | -21 1/4 |
| Mar '27 Corn | 515 1/2 | -20 1/2 |
| Nov '26 Beans | 1293 | -4 3/4 |
| Jan '27 Beans | 1309 1/4 | -3 1/2 |
| Dec '26 Chi Wheat | 675 3/4 | -17 |
| Dec '26 KC Wheat | 733 | -10 |
| Dec '26 Cotton | 78.60 | -.26 |
| Crude Oil (spot futures) | 90.54 | +1.16 |
| US Dollar Index (spot futures) | 101.24 | +.10 |
| Dow Jones (spot futures) | 51,345 | -354 |

## Daily Glance

The quarterly stocks report landed on corn, and it landed hard. Corn had been a few cents higher into the 11:00 release, then was down more than 20 within minutes once USDA found 177 million more bushels of old crop than the trade was looking for, 90 million more than even the highest guess. It never got much of a bounce from there, finishing near the low of the day and at its lowest close since the middle of August.

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Beans got the friendlier number and still couldn't hold a rally. Stocks came in a little under the guesses, and beans had been up better than a dozen cents ahead of the report, but they got dragged down with corn and finished modestly lower, still inside Monday's range.

Wheat's own report was mildly friendly too, with stocks under the guesses and the smallest crop since 1970, and it didn't matter. Chicago traded up to 7.00 ahead of the release, then followed corn down to finish near the bottom of its range, now about a dollar and twenty cents under its early September high.

Cotton steadied after Tuesday's four cent drop, finishing about a quarter lower.

Outside markets were no help either way. Crude bounced a little more than a dollar after Tuesday's drop, the dollar firmed again, and the Dow lost another 350 points on the last day of the quarter.

## Key Points/Developments

**Technicals:** December corn traded up to 526 1/4 ahead of the report, right into the 525 area we had as first resistance, then fell 27 cents to 498 3/4 before settling a couple of cents off that low. That took out the 515 support and the 50 day average, which corn closed under for the first time since the middle of July. Support is now the 5.00 area, which held on the close, then the 490 area where the August rally paused, with resistance at the 50 day average near 506, then 515 and the 525 area.

November beans got as high as 1311 1/2 before the report, short of the 1314 level, then dipped to 1289 3/4 and settled at 1293. The 1280 area held again, and the 50 day average is up near 1256 under it. Resistance is the 1300 area, then 1314 and the 1332 area that has turned beans back three times this month.

**Spreads:** The Dec/Mar corn spread widened three quarters of a cent to 14 3/4, and the Nov/Jan bean spread went out a cent and a quarter to 16 1/4. Both widened on a day the front months took the brunt of the selling.

**Weather:** TStorm made no changes again today, leaving corn, soybeans and winter wheat all at slightly favorable.

The last of the rain falls over the next day or two, an inch to two across the Plains and the northwest half of the belt but only a few tenths across southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. After that TStorm has at least ten straight days of dry, mild weather it calls ideal for harvest, with combines running just about everywhere by the 9th to 11th of October.

Southern Brazil is still the wet spot, with another 4 to 8 inches through the middle of the month keeping first crop corn and wheat there unusually wet. Central Brazil's planting rains keep coming, and Argentina keeps improving.

## Markets/Trading Implications

Not the day we wanted to see. The tug of war we laid out yesterday got settled in a hurry, and the bears won it going away. The bulls did get their cut to last year's crop, about 57 million bushels and on acres rather than yield, but the feed and residual adjustment was four times that size, which says last year's record feed number was never real.

On its own, a corn carryout that goes from roughly 1.57 billion bushels to around 1.74 isn't a bearish number, and you could argue it's still a workable one. The trouble is what the market had been pricing. The funds were carrying a near record long on the idea that stocks would only get tighter from here, and today told them the opposite.

Recently, we said we'd be hard pressed to see corn below 5.00 unless the fund managers really got spooked, and that's right where it closed tonight, with the 50 day average just overhead. To clarify what we said earlier today on fund positioning, the funds flipped from short to long in the middle of July, but the bulk of the length came later. From the middle of August on, their net long more than doubled, nearly 250,000 contracts added at the peak, and just about all of it was bought at or above where corn closed tonight.

A close under the 50 day has a way of getting them to shed more to get out of losing trades. We're not saying that's what happens, and we're certainly not bearish from these levels on the fundamentals, but the short term direction now rests with them.

The offset has to come from yield. By our math it takes at least a bushel and a quarter off the national corn yield in the October 9 report just to get the balance sheet back to where it was this morning, with another update in November behind it. Early yields out of the western belt still argue for a cut, so it's not out of the question, but it's a lot to ask of a single report.

Beans are the better story, and today's report leaned their way. Stocks were a touch under the guesses on a record crush, which puts the carryout around 300 million, and the firm basis we've been talking about finally has some support in the numbers, just not enough to call it explained. With China's Golden Week starting tomorrow, don't expect much new business until late next week, so beans will have to hold up without that help, still about 37 cents above their 50 day average.

Wheat's numbers were mildly friendly and it sold off anyway, which tells you it's trading corn and the funds rather than its own balance sheet, with essentially no war premium left in it.

On marketing, we're glad we pushed to get caught up on sales, especially harvest bushels, and a lot of you did. We wouldn't be selling anything more at these levels and are comfortable hanging tight for now.

Call anytime.

## Other Notes

- TStorm looked back at the last four strong El Ninos and Brazil's soybean crop. Southern Brazil was wet from October through December every time and had above trend yields all four years, while central Brazil, which now carries most of the crop, was wet in two of them and dry in two, and the national yield followed the center. So far this October is tracking the wet years.
- Here is a look at the changes from today's reports:

## Static Notes

- Commitment of Traders data covering positions through Tuesday, September 22, showed the funds moving back into beans while trimming corn. Corn's net long came down 12k to 414k. Soybeans' net long grew 20k to 265k, and wheat's net short deepened from nearly 5k to 13k.
- Prices during the corresponding week saw December corn gain 1 cent, November beans gain 6 3/4, and December Chicago wheat lose 11 1/4. In the six trading days since this report, corn has lost 36 cents, soybeans have lost 32 1/2, and Chicago wheat has lost 41 1/2.

Have a nice evening!

Clayton and Taylor

**RISK DISCLAIMER:**  
Trading in futures products entails significant risks of loss which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.  
Please contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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